Even if a deal is reached in 2019, the trade war will do serious injury to U.S. ag exports because China is already diversifying away from U.S. products. “Overall, China will be a significant buyer for agriculture exports, but even if we reach an agreement tomorrow, the long-lasting damage is already done,” says Zhang.
Zhang was also interviewed on a podcast on land values and ag lending for a July 17th podcast on AmericanBanker.com.
"If you look at the historical relationship (between farm income and land values), typically it's a two to one ratio. About a 10 percent change in farm income will lead to about 5 percent change in land values. By economic fundamentals we should expect land values to go down even more. Why it hasn't fallen nearly as much as people predicted in part is because we don't have a whole lot of land available for sale, the supply of land is very tight."