Location: 360 Heady Hall
Description: Otavio Bartalotti
“Revising the Effects of Unemployment Insurance Extensions on Unemployment: A Measurement Error-Corrected Regression Discontinuity Approach”
Abstract: We reassess the literature using state border strategies to examine the effects of UI extensions, focusing on two potential biases for boundary-based identification strategies: upward endogeneity bias from shocks causing UI extensions and attenuation bias from across-border spillovers. We extend the previous work using a regression discontinuity (RD) approach that accounts for measurement error in county-level aggregates. Contrasting our small RD results with the large effects found previously using border-pair strategies highlights the tension between these biases, casting doubt on the applicability of
such approaches. Furthermore, our spillover results provide evidence against a dominant vacancy reduction response to UI extensions.