Description: Macro-Development-Trade Workshop: Gueyon Kim

Location: 368A Heady Hall

Contact Person: Gary Lyn

Title: "Buying Support or Financing Opposition? The Political Impact of Donald Trump's Farm Subsidies"

Abstract: We test whether Donald Trump’s farm subsidies increased farmers’ support for him. We link FOIA-obtained data on the universe of USDA-supported farmers to their history of individual campaign contributions. We estimate a difference-in-differences between farmers who are geographically nearby but fall within counties that paid different per-acre subsidies. Larger payments had no impact on support for Trump, but did increase support for Democrats. We propose and find evidence consistent with a model of probabilistic giving under income constraints where transfers persuade few voters, but enable poorer left-leaning farmers to give to Democrats without any similar impact on wealthier right-leaning farmers.