Description: Department Seminar

Location: 368A Heady Hall

Contact: John Crespi

Title: Is a Yield Slowdown on the Horizon? Yield and Plant Population in U.S Corn

Abstract: For decades, U.S. corn yields have risen consistently at a rate of nearly 1.9 bushels per acre per year, largely driven by increasing planting density. This growth has been crucial for global food security and U.S. dominance in corn production; however, planting rates have leveled off across major corn-producing states since 2015, signaling a potential slowdown in yield growth. This study assesses future yield potential amidst this plateau. While predictive models based on USDA data suggest that stagnant planting rates could significantly curtail future gains, data from national yield contests (2013–2023) reveals continued gains of more than 3 bu/acre despite stable plant populations. This indicates a pivot toward gains in yield-per-plant as the primary growth driver. We find that while high-performing fields still utilize higher populations, they are more likely to use narrow row widths (e.g. 20-inch rows). These results suggest that future productivity growth may depend as much on capital investment in planting technology as on genetic advancement.