Description: Labor-Public-Applied Economics Workshop

Location: 368A Heady Hall

Contact: John Winters

Title: Local Economic Impacts of Food Manufacturing Plant Closures in the Midwest

Abstract: This paper provides the first systematic evidence on the local economic impacts of food manufacturing plant closures across Midwestern counties between 2010 and 2024. Using synthetic difference-in-differences, I find that a food plant closure reduces total county employment by about 8.1 percent for strongly treated counties, equivalent to an average loss of 528 jobs compared with an average layoff size of 418. Manufacturing employment falls as expected, and non-manufacturing employment erodes more gradually, suggesting spillover effects that accumulate over time. The unemployment rate spikes immediately after closures and remains elevated for several months. The effects are uneven, with employment losses disproportionately large among minority groups, especially Hispanic and Black workers. These groups also experience local population decline. Food manufacturing plant closures have important local economic impacts, including multiplier effects that extend beyond directly displaced workers and unequal burdens within and across rural and small-town counties.