"They are a fairly large corn exporter -- especially into China and the Middle East -- and so if they can't plant that crop, those areas of the world are going to look towards the U.S. and South America to fill those grain needs," says ISU Economist Chad Hart.
Hart says no crops, or greatly curtailed crops, out of Ukraine could mean more money for Iowa farmers -- especially corn producers.
"Definitely means stronger prices as we look at the 2022 and 2023 crops, and we have seen the markets react just that way. We have seen corn and wheat prices move significantly higher with the onset of the war," he says.
Hart says more money for Iowa corn famers could also mean higher costs for many other people.
"Think about our livestock industry, and the idea that these higher corn and wheat prices are translating into higher feed costs. So, anybody who's a user of corn or wheat right now is definitely feeling the pinch from these higher prices," he says.
This story also covered by:
WHO-AM, March 23
Business Record, March 30
Hart was also interviewed by
KIWA Radio, March 29, "Russian Invasion Of Ukraine May Drive Up Sales Of US Commodities."
Radio Iowa, March 29, "ISU economist says Russian invasion could open new commodity markets."
Grist, March 29, "Midwestern lawmakers are trying to replace Russian oil with ethanol."
The RFA, which has separately urged Biden to use his emergency authorization powers to allow E15 to be sold year-round, stated that the U.S. already has enough ethanol to replace every lost barrel of Russian oil. But Chad Hart, an Iowa State University professor who specializes in agricultural economics, told the Iowa Capital Dispatch that ethanol production may need to increase by more than 30 percent to meet demand.