“You’re talking about a good chunk of land,” said Chad Hart, an Iowa State University agricultural economist who closely follows federal programs. “These programs do represent a sizeable cash-flow injection.”
“That’s something USDA has been worried about,” said Hart. “In years when rental rates have been declining those CRP rates are holding up the rates you can get in the marketplace. In a bad farm economy CRP becomes more attractive.”
Hart was also interviewed for a Jan. 31 High Plains Journal story, "Corn: To Plant or not to Plant?"
Hart was interviewed in a Jan. 31 FactCheck.org story, "Trump Exaggerates China Trade Impact on Farmers."
The trade pact does say that both parties “project that the trajectory of increases” will continue through 2025, so it is possible that China could purchase $50 billion a year in U.S. agricultural products in 2023, Chad E. Hart, an associate professor of economics and crop markets specialist at Iowa State University, told us. But there is no requirement that China increase purchases beyond 2021, he said.
“When you look at this deal it locks in hard targets for this year and next year, but it does not guarantee anything beyond that,” Hart said.
Iowa and six neighboring states each marked decade-high numbers of farm bankruptcies in 2019. Hart says farm income has actually been on the rise, buoyed by 28-billion dollars in federal payments to make up for trade disruptions. He says those payments are not expected to continue, but the financial pressure on Midwestern farmers likely will.