A May 2020 policy brief by CARD, "China’s Agricultural Imports under the Phase One Deal: Is Success Possible?" was cited in a May 27 Successful Farming story, "China buys more; will it be enough for Phase One?"
U.S. agriculture was a leading target of retaliatory tariffs by China, formerly the top buyer of farm exports. The Trump administration sent $23 billion in payments to farmers and ranchers to mitigate the impact of trade war on 2018 and 2019 production. The USDA is due to update on Friday its estimate of exports to China this fiscal year, now a relatively subdued $14 billion, compared to the average of $21 billion a year before the trade war.
“We predict China will import $18.60 billion in agricultural products from the United States in 2020, far behind the Phase One target of $36.5 billion,” wrote economists Xi He, Dermot Hayes and Wendong Zhang in a policy brief from the CARD think tank at Iowa State University.
“There is still room for optimism,” they said and pointed to signs such as more attractive prices for U.S. commodities and China’s plan to expand its national grain reserve. “China will likely accelerate its purchases in the rest of 2020. However, overall trade prospects are still quite uncertain and depend on COVID-19’s impact on various logistical channels.”