Ask an Economist

Question:
Can you tell me a price range (per acre) that Central Iowa farmland sales have fallen within the last 6 months or so and is that price generally trending up or down? I am specifically interested in Webster County.
Answer:

Thank you for your question. Yes, we have recently developed a new Iowa Land Value web-portal which allows you to visualize the trends in Iowa land values at the county, district and state level. It is available at...

Question:
Why did China’s banking system grow so much since 2000 if the PBOC was actively increasing the RRR and withdrawing liquidity through FX Reserve purchases?
Answer:

First of all, I want to make it clear that, when a central bank increases its FX reserves, it supplies local currencies and increases liquidity in the money market. But this is certainly not the reason that China’s banking system grew so much....

Question:
Why has Saudi Arabia released so much oil for sale that prices for that have dropped so fast? Does that country have a lot of debt? Does it relate indirectly to the economic slow down in China?
Answer:

Currently, Saudi Arabia’s foreign exchange reserve is about $600 billion. Saudi’s oil export is about 8 million barrels per day, or about 2800 million barrels per year. At $100 per barrel, their revenue from oil exports would be about $280...

Question:
The way the economy is today, would it be bad if rich countries (US, EU and Japan) print money and instead of doing the QE (top bottom) inserted the money on a bottom up approach? And I know about the risk of inflation, but isn't it what we want right now? A little bit?

1) I'm talking here about rich countries with deflation or very little inflation, so a bit more of extra money in the market wouldn't be bad (it would be up to them to calculate this amount)

2) The money could be give to the poorest in the society. This money would go straight back to the economy since lower classes save very little (usually they spend the extra money or pay debts). So instead of the trickle down economics (which usually doesn't work) we would have a trickle up economics. Australia did it just after the 2008 GFC and it was one of the only developed countries that didn't go into recession. (although it took the money from its budget).

3) The QE amounted in trillions of dollars and not much of this money went to the real economy in terms of investment and the creation of jobs. A lot of it created an inflation of assets such as the growth of the stock market in US, a housing price hike in world cities such as NY, London, Sydney, LA and so on and even Art prices exploded...but not much to the real economy.

4) Corporations don't need more money in the form of tax breaks and cheap loans (they are swimming in cash). They need consumers to consume! So they know they have a market and be confident to invest in new projects. And with the squeeze of the middle class in rich countries, we are not consuming as much as we need to keep the economy growing.

5) I don't know how much money would be enough to kick start (or improve) the economy of Japan, Europe and US without a dangerous inflation but it could be done in 4 installments along the year to the poorest families. Image something like 4 x 200 USD in one year. This money would make a big difference for low-income families and would flood directly to the economy...and companies would know that the money would come and they could prepare themselves.

6) The dollar is pretty strong now and it's becoming a problem for the US and the rest of the world. So printing a bit might not hurt much.

7) A few years ago negative interest rates were seen as something out of this world. But now Japan, Switzerland and Sweden have it. We just need to think out of the box to improve this economy in a more inclusive way....no middle class, no economy and no democracy!

8) Obviously, this wouldn't work with developing countries with weak currencies and inflation...but for US, EU and Japan...why not?
Answer:

There are several issues here. First, the US central bank, the Fed, is an independent monetary authority and does what it thinks best to keep inflation and unemployment low. They cannot be "asked" to print more money or change interest rates....

Question:
During a discussion with some friends on the whole "free college tuition" debate, along with the trillions of dollars currently owed on student loans, I began to wonder about a solution that would be somewhat liberal, but not so far to the left that it would be completely dismissed.

My question is: would it be economically feasible if the United States changed its tax code to allow all citizens to deduct 100% of all monies paid towards student loan lenders (interest AND principle)?

Responsible tax payers could see a lower tax bill (something we all know conservatives AND most liberals love), or most likely a refund (even better!, and the American public would have a greater incentive to pay down the trillions in student loan debt we currently owe.

I am what people are calling a millennial. I am a liberal. However, I do believe that nothing is free. But after graduating in 2008, my loans quickly rent into repayment long before I earned the chance to pay them off. Almost a decade later, my wife and I have a combined student loan debt of just about $100,000. And that WITH going to a cheaper public in-state school!

Anyways, I digress. I just had this notion, and since my education is more in marketing, I felt I could let the economists tell me if I'm flat out crazy, or if it was a viable plan.
Answer:

This is a great question. Currently interest (but not principal) on student loans is deductible within certain limits. The maximum deduction is $2,500 and the amount of the deduction begins to diminish once your Modified Adjusted Gross Income...

Question:
Generally speaking, an efficient allocation of ‘ownership’ or ‘control’ of a business is one that matches contribution to capital or input. For example, if I commit 60% of the resources a business requires (human or other capital), then I would expect approximately 60% control (ownership). It seems that both Partner 1 and Partner 2 contributed the same amount of cash equity (each secured “the same” loan to fund Business 2). Therefore, a starting point is that each Partner has equal ownership (on grounds of invested risk capital). One might also consider that Business 1 is a ‘partner’ because of the subsidization of land (rent) and Partner B’s salary. Business 1’s contribution is an amortized amount of rent and salary over the years in which Business 1 will subsidize Business 2. In this case, Business 1’s ownership is not trivial and should be recognized as risk capital to be repaid by Business 2 or purchased by either Partner A or Partner B at some point, giving the purchasing Partner a greater share of the remaining control.
Answer:

Partner A secures a loan for startup through a business (business 1) he owns 90% of. Partner A will have significant input in business decisions but little to do with day to day operations. The new business (business 2) is in a different industry...

Question:
If growth rate is measured as % of GDP, and inflation is also measured as % of GDP, wouldn't a growth rate of 2% be completely offset by a 2% inflation rate for the same period? That is, the GDP would experience 0% effective increase?
Answer:

Hello, and thank you for sending us a question! The GDP growth rate is measured relative to last year’s GDP. Usually the Growth numbers that make headlines on the news are of what economists usually call “Real GDP,” meaning that it is already...

Question:
In a recent article in the New York Times about free trade, the author talks about the negative impact on the US of low cost Chinese goods entering the market not being experienced by Germany and other European countries. The article goes on to explain that part of the reason is low US interest rates caused in part by a low American savings rate.

Why would a low savings rate put downward pressure on rates? If savings is capital available to be borrowed, and less savings means less capital available, shouldn't that put upward pressure on rates (everything else being equal)? Isn't that a fundamental economic principle? Restricted supply in the face of fixed demand = increasing price (interest rates)?

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/16/business/economy/on-trade-angry-voters...

"Mr. Autor suggests that Americans’ low savings rate was a big part of the story, coupled with foreigners’ appetite for accumulating dollar assets, which helped keep American interest rates low and the dollar strong, in that way fueling a persistent trade deficit."
Answer:

To a certain extent, the quoted sentence is tautological.

As an accounting identity, from the GNP accounts, the Balance of Trade (positive is a surplus) = (Savings – Investment) + (Taxes – Government Spending)

Hence, a balance of...

Question:
I would like to understand how the National Negotiated barrow and gilt price relate to Peoria and interior Missouri live hogs price, futures hog contracts and profit for the farmer, and if possible have a margin profit table from 2013 up to date.
Answer:

To explore the relationship between the Peoria live hog price, Interior Missouri live hog price, National negotiated prior day purchase base price, National negotiated slaughter base price, CME lean hog futures price, and farrow to finish profit...

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