1988 Japanese Beef Market Access Agreement: A Forecast Simulation Analysis (The)

Wahl, Thomas I.; Williams, Gary W.; Hayes, Dermot J.

Agribusiness: An International Journal Vol. 5 no. 4 (1989): 347-360.

This article utilizes dynamic simulation analysis to consider the likely consequences of the 1988 Japanese Beef Market Access Agreement (BMAA) on the Japanese livestock industry and beef imports. The results lead to a number of conclusions. Beef imports will increase to the new quota level in the first three years and continue increasing at about the same rate thereafter. The shift from the import quota to the import tariff in 1991 will have little effect on imports or prices. Finally, the US share of increasing Japanese beef imports will increase at the expense of Australia and New Zealand.