Kreider, Brent

UMAP Journal of Undergraduate Mathematics and Its Applications Vol. 4 no. 17 (Winter 1996)

On Dec. 10, 1995, the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Dallas Cowboys 20-17 in overtime after the Cowboys twice failed near the end of regulation to convert on a fourth down play in their own territory. Coach Switzer's decision not to punt was roundly vilified in the national sports media as "irrational," "amateurish," "dumb and dumber," and one of the "worst decisions made in the annals of time" comparable to "The Edsel. The leisure suit. Adam biting on the apple." The analysis in this article shows that far from being one of the worst decisions in the annals of time, Switzer's decision most likely maximized his team's chances of winning the game, even in the extreme case that a failed fourth down conversion would mean certain defeat.