Hog Cycles and Countercyclical Production Response

Hayes, Dermot J.; Schmitz, Andrew

American Journal of Agricultural Economics Vol. 69 no. 4 (November 1987): 762-770.

The cycle in prices and output is not a permanent fixture of the pork industry. Exogenous shocks occasionally give rise to predictable cycles in pork prices, but these are eventually eliminated in a manner that is consistent with the existence of countercyclical producers. It normally takes several revolutions of the cycle before a sufficient number of countercyclical producers notice that a cycle has begun and are able to alter their production patterns sufficiently to eliminate it. Consequently, the more compelling the evidence is in favor of a cycle the less likely it is to continue.

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