Model:

The model is a standard statistical regression model. Independent variable is the game margins of all games played. Dependent variables are the team strengths of all teams, plus one home-court advantage variable.

As of 1/11/2003, there the variable sizes were 1784 games, 467 teams (394 Iowa teams, 73 non-Iowa teams).

Each game is considered an equation involving 2 team variables, a home-court advantage variable, and the independent variable of the actual game margin. Thus there are 1784 equations and 468 variables (467 teams + 1 home-court advantage variable). Since there are more equations than variables, a least-squares regression is performed to obtain the team strengths and home-court advantage. Find a standard college-level statistics book for more details.

In a real sense the only criteria is game margin. The rest of the computation is strictly statistics.

Length of ranking:

I have been ranking Iowa high school basketball and football teams since the Fall of 2001.

Reprint:

You can reprint or reference these rankings. Please let me know if you publish an article.

Quality:

I experimented with other models, but the simple model described above has proved to provide the best predictions available anywhere. There are many examples I can describe, but the most recent one is this. I read about the Pomeroy-Palmer versus Newell-Fonda game in the Des Moines Register this morning. The Register described this game as an upset of #2 Pomeroy-Palmer by #4 Newell-Fonda. Before the game the computer model predicted #2 Newell-Fonda beating #10 Pomeroy-Palmer by 14 points. The actual game margin was 11.

Thank you for your interest!