Teams are not directly rewarded for level of competition. Game margin is the link. In the regression equation, game margin is the only independent variable. Everything else is derived from this.
From what I can see so far, Elgin Valley has been presented with the easiest starting chedule of an Class A team (66th out of 66). I certainly see a win over 2A Monona MFL-MarMac. However, MFL is currently rated #67 out of 72 2A teams and #230 out of 273 3A-A teams.
Also remember the 2002 football season and 9-0 Lisbon. AP had Lisbon ranked #2, primarily because there were only 2 undefeated teams. Computer had the team ranked #9 and predicted a loss in the 2nd round of the playoffs. Lisbon lost in the 2nd round just as predicted.
The season is early and the current analysis is built on a very small amount of data. As the season progresses, the computer model will have better rankings and predictions.
(3-0) #16 Elgin Valley 67.39 @ (0-3) #63 Maynard West Central 6.48 -59.78 100%
It looks like Valley won't be tested this week either.
Thanks for your comments!