Iowa Farm Outlook & News
- Mar. 2013 Beef Production: 2.04 billion pounds, down 6% from last year
- Mar. 2013 Cattle Slaughter: 2.59 million head, down 6% from last year
- Mar. 2013 Pork Production: 1.93 billion pounds, down 3% from last year
- Mar. 2013 Hog Slaughter: 9.32 million head, down 2% from last year
- May 2013 New Crop Supply Estimates:
Corn Yield 158 bushels per acre,
down 5.6 bushels from Feb. projection, but up 34.6 bushels from last year
Soybean Yield 44.5 bushels per acre,
steady with Feb. projection, but up 4.9 bushels from last year
- May 2013 New Crop Demand Estimates:
Corn Use 12.92 billion bushels,
down 90 million from Feb. projection, but up 1.78 billion from last year
Soybean Use 3.26 billion bushels,
steady with Feb. projection, but up 180 million bushels from last year
- May 2013 New Crop Price Estimates:
Corn $4.70 per bushel, down 10 cents from Feb. projection, down $2.20 from last year
Soybean $10.50 per bushel, steady with Feb. projection, but down $3.80 from last year
Yield Adjustments Already (5/10/13)
USDA's first official for the 2013 crops came out today and production adjustments are already being worked in for corn. Normally, USDA starts with their February trend yield estimate. This time, USDA took 5.6 bushels off that trend, given the delays in planting progress and the soil moisture concerns. While the 2013 corn crop is still projected to be a record, that record is a bit smaller now.
Corn demand also was adjusted. Feed and export demand lost bushels, while ethanol gained. For 2012 corn, the ethanol increase offset the export decline. For 2013 corn, the feed and export reductions exceeded the ethanol boost by 100 million bushels. If the projections hold, corn ending stocks would grow to over 2 billion bushels.
For soybeans, the changes in the numbers were much more modest. There were no changes for the 2012 crop. For the 2013 soybean crop, the supply numbers were steady, but demand switched between sectors. Domestic crush was raised 35 million bushels, while exports were lowered 50 million. Projected prices for the 2013 crops are $10.50 per bushel for soybeans and $4.70 per bushel for corn.
A Quick Look at the Meat Market (5/1/13)
Boxed beef values have not been able to gain much support during the first few months of 2013. In mid-March the Choice cutout topped out at $197.49 per hundred weight (cwt) before sliding lower and steadying in the last few weeks around $190/cwt. Mid-March was the only time this year that the Choice cutout has made a run at the $200/cwt mark - a level that has thus far eluded the market. So far in 2013, as was the case last year, the market seems to run into considerable resistance at prices north of $195/cwt. One factor that is likely limiting rallies in the cutout value is the relative price issue. Wholesale beef prices have not been able to get too far out of line with wholesale pork prices. And, with the larger than expected hog inventory, large pork supplies have been keeping pressure on pork prices, in turn limiting the upside for the beef market.