| Week Ending | Strategy | Activity | Observation |
| 11-Jun | Hedge and hold | Sold futures contract June 3 at $88.15 | We sold at the close the first day of class. We received margin calls as high as $560 percontract as the market moved higher, but by the end of the week we were ahead. |
| Buy a put | Bought an $88 strike price put for $4.60/cwt. | The option fell in value initially as low as $4.40, but by the end of the week the premium had increased value by $.35/cwt. There is no margin account to worry about if you buy options, but if you were to sell it back the option is worth more on June 10 than you paid for it. | |
| 3-9 moving average | No action | There has been no trades, but the 3-Day average was within $.03 of the 9-Day average and headed lower. Watch for a signal. | |
| 5-15 moving average | No action | There has been no trades, and the 5-Day average is $.90 above the 15-Day average. | |
| 15-45 moving average | No action | No trades here. The lines are nearly parallel so there won't be any trades unless there is a significant and prolonged dowwn turn in the market. | |
| Sell at $92 or July 10 | No action | ||
| 18-Jun | Hedge and hold | Sold futures contract June 3 at $88.15 | We are $1.40/cwt ahead at the end of the week or $560 per contract. |
| Buy a put | Bought an $88 strike price put for $4.60/cwt. | The option value climbed as high as $5.55, but closed the week at $5.05 or $180 per contract ahead. | |
| 3-9 moving average | Got a Sell signal on the close of June 14 so sold on the opening June 15 at $86.70 | We sold at $86.70 on Tuesday morning. At the end of the week we were $.05/cwt or $20/contract behind the market. | |
| 5-15 moving average | Got a Sell signal on the close of June 15 so sold on the opening June 16 at $86.08 | We sold at $86.08 on Wednesday morning. At the end of the week we were $.67/cwt or $270/contract behind the market. | |
| 15-45 moving average | No action | The trend is lower, but the short-term and long-term lines have not crossed. | |
| Sell at $92 or July 10 | No action | We haven't reached $92 or July 10. | |
| 25-Jun-04 | USDA announced after the market closed Friday one inconclusive test for BSE. The markets will be nervous Monday. The Two moving average strategies that had placed hedges last week gave a buy signal this week. If you lifted the hedge Monday morning may be a bummer. | ||
| 25-Jun-04 | Hedge and hold | Sold futures contract June 3 at $88.15 | We are $1.22/cwt or $490 per contract behind as the market moved higher this week. |
| Buy a put | Bought an $88 strike price put for $4.60/cwt. | The put dropped in value this week to $3.95/cwt or a loss of $260 per contract plus commission compared to what we paid for it. The futures have gained $1.22/cwt since we started or $488 per contract so the value of the cattle have increased more than the loss in put value to date. | |
| 3-9 moving average | Got a buy signal on the June 22 close and bought on the open the next morning at $87.40 for a loss of $.70/cwt from the sell we made June 15. | Bought to get out of the contract on the open June 23 and had a loss of $.70/cwt or $280/contract. Commission is $65/contract so to total cost is $345/contract. If you had held the contract rather than buying back you would have been down $2.68/cwt or $1072 on the Friday close. | |
| 5-15 moving average | Got a buy signal on the June 24 close and bought on the open the next morning at $89.40 for a loss of $2.68/cwt from the sell we made June 16. | Bought to get out of the contract on the open June 25 and had a loss of $3.33/cwt or $1330/contract. Commission is $65/contract so to total cost is $1395/contract. If you had held the contract rather than buying back you would have been down $3.30/cwt or $1320 on the Friday close. | |
| 15-45 moving average | No action | The trend is now higher, but the short-term and long-term lines have not crossed and may well widen. | |
| Sell at $92 or July 10 | No action | We haven't reached $92 or July 10. | |
| 2-Jul | Hedge and hold | Sold futures contract June 3 at $88.15 | We are $1.75/cwt or $700 per contract ahead as the market moved lower this week. |
| Buy a put | Bought an $88 strike price put for $4.60/cwt. | The put increased in value this week to $5.60/cwt or a gain of $400 per contract less commission compared to what we paid for it. The futures have lost $1.75/cwt since we started or $700 per contract so the value of the cattle have lost more than the gain in put value to date. | |
| 3-9 moving average | Got a sell signal on Tuesday's close and sold on the Wednesday open at $85.80 | Sold on Wednesday's open and were behind by the end of the day. By Friday's close were were behind $.60/cwt or $240 per contract. | |
| 5-15 moving average | Out of the market all week, but got a sell signal on Friday's close. | No action, but will sell on Monday's open. | |
| 15-45 moving average | No action | The lines are getting closer, but still no signal. | |
| Sell at $92 or July 10 | No action | We haven't reached $92 or July 10. | |
| 9-Jul | Hedge and hold | Sold futures contract June 3 at $88.15 | We are $1.20/cwt or $480 per contract ahead as the market regained some of the loss from last week, but is still lower than June 3rd. higher this week. |
| Buy a put | Bought an $88 strike price put for $4.60/cwt. | The put lost value this week to $4.80/cwt to a value of $80 per contract less commission compared to what we paid for it. The futures have lost $1.20/cwt since we started or $480 per contract so the value of the cattle have lost more than the gain in put value to date. | |
| 3-9 moving average | A busy week. Got a buy signal on the close of July 8 and sold on the open July 9 for $86.30. On the close of July 9 we got a sell signal and will sell on Monday's open. | Bought on the open Friday morning for $86.30 for a loss of $.50/cwt or $200/contract plus commission of $65. To date, this strategy is $610/contract behind. If we had used the signal to sell initially and held the contract we would be $.25/cwt behind. | |
| 5-15 moving average | Sold on Monday's open at $88.20 because of the sell signal on Friday's close. | Sold at $88.20 Monday and were ahead $1.25/cwt of $500 per contract by the end of the week. | |
| 15-45 moving average | No action | The lines are getting closer, but still no signal. | |
| Sell at $92 or July 10 | $92 has not been reached through July 9 so we will sell on Monday's open. | ||
| 16-Jul | Hedge and hold | Sold futures contract June 3 at $88.15 | Market fell this week and the margin account grew. By Friday the position was ahead $2.75/cwt or $1100 per contract. |
| Buy a put | Bought an $88 strike price put for $4.60/cwt. | The put gained value this week to $5.50/cwt, the second highest price since we started. It has a value of $360 per contract. | |
| 3-9 moving average | Sold futures on the Open Monday at $86.50 following the Friday signal. | By Friday close the position was ahead $1.10/cwt or $440 percontact. | |
| 5-15 moving average | No action this week. Still short at $88.20 from July 6. | Looking good. Ahead $2.80/cwt or $1120 per contract at the Friday close. | |
| 15-45 moving average | No action | The lines are getting closer, but still no signal. | |
| Sell at $92 or July 10 | Sold on the Open July 12 at $86.50 based on the earlier decision to sell at $92 or July 10 which ever came first. | By Friday close the position was ahead $1.10/cwt or $440 percontact. | |
| 23-Jul | Hedge and hold | Sold futures contract June 3 at $88.15 | Market gained $3.90/cwt this week and the margin account turned negative. By Friday the position was negative $1.15/cwt or $460 per contract. This is a $1560/ contract swing in one week. |
| Buy a put | Bought an $88 strike price put for $4.60/cwt. | The put lost value this week to $3.40/cwt. Compared to when it was bought it has lost $480. | |
| 3-9 moving average | Bought on the Friday open at $89.70 following the signal on the Thursday close. | Lost $1440/contract plus commission on the recent trade that was sold at $86.50 on July 12th. This is the thrid trade with a loss every time for a total loss of $2123 including commissions or $5.31/cwt and we are not to October. | |
| 5-15 moving average | No action this week, but got a buy signal on the Friday close. | By Friday we were $1.10 behind or $440 per contract. | |
| 15-45 moving average | Finally got a sell signal and made the first trade on this strategy. Sold on the open July 20 at $85.35. | By the Friday close we were $3.95/cwt behind or $1580/contract. | |
| Sell at $92 or July 10 | Sold on the Open July 12 at $86.50. No action this week. | We were behind by $2.80/cwt or $1120 by the end o fthe week. | |
| 30-Jul | Hedge and hold | Sold futures contract June 3 at $88.15 | The market ended the week $.55/cwt lower than last Friday, had set new contract highs early in the week. The margin account ended the week $240/contract below where we started, but the margin calls were significant on Tuesday. |
| Buy a put | Bought an $88 strike price put for $4.60/cwt. | The put value dropped as low as $2.70/cwt but returned to the $3.20 level by Friday. This is $560/contract less than we paid for it. | |
| 3-9 moving average | Out of the market. No action this week. | No signal this week. | |
| 5-15 moving average | Bought October futures at the open based on signal from Friday night close. | Bought at $89.55 Monday morning and are now out of the market. Lost $1.35/cwt or $540/contract. Have lost $1870 plus 2 commissions per contract since we started. | |
| 15-45 moving average | Got a buy signal Wendesday night and bought at $90.25 on the Thursday open. | Bought at $90.25 on Thursday's open. Lost $4.90/cwt or $1960+commission. Now out of the market. | |
| Sell at $92 or July 10 | Sold on the Open July 12 at $86.50. No action this week. | Finished the week $2.25 behind or $900/per contract. | |
| 6-Aug | Hedge and hold | Sold futures contract June 3 at $88.15 | The market fell $1.53/cwt since last Friday. The margin account ended the week with a positive balance of $472/contract. |
| Buy a put | Bought an $88 strike price put for $4.60/cwt. | The put value increased $.20/cwt to the $3.40 level by Friday. This is $480/contract less than we paid for it. | |
| 3-9 moving average | Received a sell signal on the close of the 2nd. Sold on the open Tuesday morning at $88.15. | Sold Tuesday morning on the open at $88.15, the same price we sold on June 3 in the hedge and hold stragegy. We ended the week with $472/contact in the margin account. | |
| 5-15 moving average | Received sell signal on the Thursday close and sold on Friday's open at $87. | Sold pn Friday's open at $87 and were about even at the end of the day. | |
| 15-45 moving average | No action this week | Out of the market no action this week. | |
| Sell at $92 or July 10 | Sold on the Open July 12 at $86.50. No action this week. | Finished the week $.47/cwt behind or $188/per contract. | |
| 13-Aug | Hedge and hold | Sold futures contract June 3 at $88.15 | Market closed the week at $89.80, the highest close since late July. The position is $1.65/cwt or $660/contract behind where we started. |
| Buy a put | Bought an $88 strike price put for $4.60/cwt. | The put value dropped to $2.35/cwt, its lowest value since we stated June 3. | |
| 3-9 moving average | Received buy signal on the Tuseday close and sold on Wednesday's open at $89.10. | Bought at $89.10 and out of the market. Lost $95/cwt or $380/contract plus commission on this trade. To date this strategy has lost $2568 including commissions on four trades. | |
| 5-15 moving average | No signal this week. | Ended the week $2.80/cwt or $1120/contract behind. | |
| 15-45 moving average | No signal this week. | Out of the market | |
| Sell at $92 or July 10 | Sold on the Open July 12 at $86.50. No action this week. | Ended the week behind by $3.30/cwt or $1320/contract | |
| 20-Aug | Hedge and hold | Sold futures contract June 3 at $88.15 | What a difference a week makes. The market closed at $86.27, $3.53 lower than the previous Friday. The position is now $1.88/cwt or $752/contract ahead of where we started. |
| Buy a put | Bought an $88 strike price put for $4.60/cwt. | The put value climbed back to $3.47/cwt. This is less that when we started eventhough the futures market is $1.88 lower than our initial position as a result of declining time value of the option. | |
| 3-9 moving average | Received sell signal on the Thursday close and sold on Friday's open at $86.50. | Sold Friday morning on the open at $86.50. We ended the week with $92/contact in the margin account. | |
| 5-15 moving average | Received buy signal on the Monday close and bought on Tuesday's open at $89.50. | Lost $2.50/cwt or $1000/contract + commission on this trade. This strategy has had 3 trades since June 3 and has lost $3065/contract inclusing commission or $7.66/cwt. | |
| 15-45 moving average | No signal this week. | Out of the market | |
| Sell at $92 or July 10 | Sold on the Open July 12 at $86.50. No action this week. | Ended the week ahead by $.23/cwt or $92/contract | |
| 27-Aug | Hedge and hold | Sold futures contract June 3 at $88.15 | The market continues to decline and the market closed at $82.85, $3.42 lower than the previous Friday. The position is now $5.30/cwt or $2120/contract ahead of where we started. |
| Buy a put | Bought an $88 strike price put for $4.60/cwt. | The put value climbed back to $6.60/cwt. This is $2 more than when we started eventhough the futures market is $5.30 lower than our initial position as a result of declining time value of the option. | |
| 3-9 moving average | No action ths week. | Sold a week ago Friday at $86.50. The position is ahead by $3.65/cwt or $1460/contract. | |
| 5-15 moving average | Received sell signal on the Monday close and sold on Tuesday's open at $84.80. | Position was up $1.95/cwt or $780/contract by the end of the week. | |
| 15-45 moving average | Received sell signal on the Monday close and sold on Tuesday's open at $84.80. | Position was up $1.95/cwt or $780/contract by the end of the week. | |
| Sell at $92 or July 10 | Sold on the Open July 12 at $86.50. No action this week. | Ended the week ahead by $3.65/cwt or $1460/contract | |
| Sold 46 Head on August 31. Offset one contract on the close that day. | |||
| 3-Sep | Hedge and hold | Sold futures contract June 3 at $88.15. Offset one contract Aug 31 at $84.65 | Offset one contract at $84.65/cwt for a gain of $1400 less commission of $65. On the 41 head, it added $2.86/cwt. The market was volatile this week, but ended near last week's close at $82.72. The position is now $5.43/cwt or $2172/contract ahead of where we started on remaining contracts. |
| Buy a put | Bought an $88 strike price put for $4.60/cwt. Sold one put contract on Aug 31 at $4.15. | Sold back one put option at $4.15/cwt for a loss of $.45/cwt or $180/contract plus commission of $65. This is a loss of $.62.cwt. The put value declined to $5.72/cwt. on the remaining two contracts. It had dropped to $4.15 earlier in the week on a market rally, but gained value as the futures declined. | |
| 3-9 moving average | Bought back one contract Aug 41 at $84.65. | Bought one contract at $84.65. Total loss on this one contract is $1725 per contract on 46,690 lbs is a loss of $3.69/cwt on cattle sold today. Sold a week ago Friday at $86.50. The position is ahead by $3.78/cwt or $1572/contract. | |
| 5-15 moving average | Bought back one contract Aug 41 at $84.65. | Bought one contract at $84.65. Total loss on this one contract is $2940 per contract on 46,690 lbs is a loss of $6.30/cwt on cattle sold today. Position was ahead $2.08/cwt or $832/contract by the end of the week. | |
| 15-45 moving average | Bought back one contract Aug 41 at $84.65. | Bought one contract at $84.65. Total loss on this one contract is $2030 per contract on 46,690 lbs is a loss of $4.35/cwt on cattle sold today. Position was ahead $2.08/cwt or $832/contract by the end of the week. | |
| Sell at $92 or July 10 | Sold on the Open July 12 at $86.50. Offset one contract at $84.65. | Offset one contract at $84.65 for a gain of $1.85/cwt or $740/contract less $65 commission for a net gain of $695/contract or $1.49/cwt on the cattle sold this week. Ended the week ahead by $3.78/cwt or $1572/contract on the remaing contracts | |
| 10-Sep | Hedge and hold | Sold futures contract June 3 at $88.15 | The market closed sharply higher on Friday, and ended the week at $85.02. The position is now $3.13/cwt or $1252/contract ahead of where we started. |
| Buy a put | Bought an $88 strike price put for $4.60/cwt. | The put value declined to $3.65/cwt., falling over $2 on Friday. Its value is $.95/cwt or $380/contract less than when we bought it. The futures market fell $3.10/cwt over the same period. | |
| 3-9 moving average | Received a buy signal on Friday's close. Will buy on Monday open. | The position is ahead by $1.48/cwt or $592/contract. | |
| 5-15 moving average | No action ths week. | Position is now behind $.22/cwt or $88/contract by the end of the week. | |
| 15-45 moving average | No action ths week. | Position is now behind $.22/cwt or $88/contract by the end of the week. | |
| Sell at $92 or July 10 | Sold on the Open July 12 at $86.50. No action this week. | The position is ahead by $1.48/cwt or $592/contract. | |
| 17-Sep | Hedge and hold | Sold futures contract June 3 at $88.15 | The market closed $.43/cwt higher than last Friday, and ended the week at $85.45. The position is now $2.70/cwt or $1080/contract ahead of where we started. |
| Buy a put | Bought an $88 strike price put for $4.60/cwt. | The put value declined to $3.05/cwt., falling over $.60 since last Friday. Its value is $1.55/cwt or $620/contract less than when we bought it. The put will be expiring in the near future and its time value will run out quickly. | |
| 3-9 moving average | Received a buy signal on last Friday's close. Bought on Monday's open at $85/cwt . | Made $1.50/cwt or $600 per contract less commission for a net of $535 on this turn and we are now out of the market. Since we started this strategy has lost $2033/contract or $5.08/cwt. | |
| 5-15 moving average | Received a buy signal on last Tuesday's close. Bought on Wednesday's open at $85.55/cwt . | Bought at $85.55 and lost $.75/cwt or $300/contract plus commission. Todate this strategy has lost $3430/contract or $8.58/cwt. | |
| 15-45 moving average | No action ths week. | Position is now behind $.65/cwt or $260/contract by the end of the week. | |
| Sell at $92 or July 10 | Sold on the Open July 12 at $86.50. No action this week. | The position is ahead by $1.05/cwt or $420/contract. | |
| 24-Sep | Hedge and hold | Sold futures contract June 3 at $88.15 | The market closed $.98/cwt lower than last Friday, and ended the week at $84.47. The position is now $3.68/cwt or $1472/contract ahead of where we started. |
| Buy a put | Bought an $88 strike price put for $4.60/cwt. | The put value rose $.65/cwt. this week to $3.70. Its value is $.90/cwt or $370/contract less than when we bought it. The put will be expiring in the near future and its time value will run out quickly. | |
| 3-9 moving average | Received a buy signal on Thursday's close. Sold on Friday's open at $84.75/cwt . | Sold on Friday open and finised the week ahead by $.28/cwt or $112/contract | |
| 5-15 moving average | No action ths week. | ||
| 15-45 moving average | No action ths week. | Position is now behind $.10/cwt or $40/contract by the end of the week. | |
| Sell at $92 or July 10 | Sold on the Open July 12 at $86.50. No action this week. | The position is ahead by $2.03/cwt or $812/contract. | |
| 1-Oct | Hedge and hold | Sold futures contract June 3 at $88.15 | The market closed at $85.88 on Friday. $1.41/cwt higher than last Friday. The position is now $2.28/cwt or $910/contract ahead of where we started. |
| Buy a put | Bought an $88 strike price put for $4.60/cwt. | The put value fell to $2.12/cwt. this week, down $1.58 for the week. Its value is $2.48/cwt or $992/contract less than when we bought it. The put will be expiring in the near future and its time value will run out quickly. | |
| 3-9 moving average | Received a buy signal on Thursday's close. Bought on Friday's open at $84.95/cwt . | Bought on Friday open and closed out the position by losing $.20/cwt or $80/contract plus commission of $65. Total losses on this strategy is $2178 or $5.45/cwt | |
| 5-15 moving average | Received a sell signal on Tuesday's close. Sold on Wednesday's open at $83.90/cwt . | Sold at $83.90 and lost $1.97/cwt or $790/contract by the end of the week. | |
| 15-45 moving average | No action ths week. | Position is now ahead $1.08/cwt or $430/contract by the end of the week. | |
| Sell at $92 or July 10 | Sold on the Open July 12 at $86.50. No action this week. | The position is ahead by $.63/cwt or $250/contract. | |
| 8-Oct | Hedge and hold | Sold futures contract June 3 at $88.15 | The market closed at $86.23 on Friday. $.35/cwt higher than last Friday. The position is now $1.93/cwt or $770/contract ahead of where we started. |
| Buy a put | Bought an $88 strike price put for $4.60/cwt. | The put value fell to $2.12/cwt. this week, down $1.58 for the week. Its value is $2.48/cwt or $992/contract less than when we bought it. The put expired today. We recaptured the $2.12/wt or $848/contract less $65 commission for a net of $783 per contract on the two remaining contracts. | |
| 3-9 moving average | No action ths week. Out of market | Out of market | |
| 5-15 moving average | Received a buy signal on Monday's close. Bought on Tuesday's open at $85.55/cwt . | Closed out postion with a loss of $1.65/cwt and $660/contract plus commission | |
| 15-45 moving average | No action ths week. | Position is now behind $1.43/cwt or a loss of $570/contract by the end of the week. | |
| Sell at $92 or July 10 | Sold on the Open July 12 at $86.50. No action this week. | The position is ahead by $.28/cwt or $110/contract. | |
| Sold last of cattle on October 12 and closed out 2 contracts at the close of the day. | |||
| 12-Oct | Hedge and hold | Sold futures contract June 3 at $88.15. Bought Oct 12 at $86.78 | Closed position ahead $1.38/cwt or $550 per contract less commission of $65/contract. Net gain of $485 percontract or $970 on 2 contracts. There were 86 head, 104,536 lbs sold today. The hedge added $.93/cwt to these cattle. |
| Buy a put | Bought an $88 strike price put for $4.60/cwt. Expired Oct 1 at $2.12/cwt | The put expired Oct 1 at $2.12/cwt for a net of $783/contract, $.50/cwt on the 104,536 lbs sold today. | |
| 3-9 moving average | No action ths week. Out of market | Lost $2010 per contract on two contracts that were traded until the cattle were sold. In total $4020 on 104,536 lbs is a loss of $3.85/cwt. | |
| 5-15 moving average | No action ths week. Out of market | Lost $4155 per contract on 2 contracts that traded until the cattle were sold. This is a total of $8310 on 104,536 lbs sold today for a loss of $7.95/cwt. | |
| 15-45 moving average | No action ths week. | Lost $2880 per contract on 2 contracts that traded until the cattle were sold. This is a total of $5760 on 104,536 lbs sold today for a loss of $5.51/cwt. | |
| Sell at $92 or July 10 | Sold on the Open July 12 at $86.50. Bought Oct 12 on the close at $86.78. | The position is ahead $110/contract less commission of $65 leaves $45/contract, $90 on 2 contracts. This is $.09/cwt on the 86 head sold today. | |
| Bottom line | /cwt | ||
| Cattle sold August 31, 41 head, 46,690# cash revenue = $39,406.45 | $84.40 | ||
| Actual basis on these cattle was -$.25/cwt | |||
| Hedge and hold | $87.26 | ||
| Buy a put | $83.78 | ||
| 3-9 moving average | $80.71 | ||
| 5-15 moving average | $78.10 | ||
| 15-45 moving average | $80.05 | ||
| Sell at $92 or July 10 | $85.89 | ||
| Cattle sold October 12, 86 head, 104,536# cash revenue =$86,037.41 | $82.30 | ||
| Actual basis on these cattle was -$4.48/cwt | |||
| Hedge and hold | $83.23 | ||
| Buy a put | $81.80 | ||
| 3-9 moving average | $78.45 | ||
| 5-15 moving average | $74.35 | ||
| 15-45 moving average | $76.79 | ||
| Sell at $92 or July 10 | $82.39 | ||