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Partially Identifying Treatment Effects with an Application to Covering the Uninsured
Journal of Human Resources (JHR), forthcoming

Brent Kreider, Iowa State University
Steven C. Hill, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality

Abstract.  We extend the nonparametric literature on partially identified probability distributions and use
our analytical results to provide sharp bounds on the impact of universal health insurance on provider visits
and medical expenditures. Our approach accounts for uncertainty about the reliability of self-reported
insurance status as well as uncertainty created by unknown counterfactuals. We construct health insurance
validation data using detailed information from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. Imposing relatively
weak nonparametric assumptions, we estimate that under universal coverage monthly per capita provider
visits and expenditures would rise by less than 8% and 16%, respectively, across the nonelderly population.