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To Punt or Not to Punt: The Switzer Decision
The UMAP Journal of Undergraduate Mathematics and Its Applications, Winter 1996, 353-363
On Dec. 10, 1995, the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Dallas
Cowboys 20-17 in overtime after the Cowboys twice
failed near the end of
regulation to convert on a fourth down play in their own territory. Coach
Switzer's decision
not to punt was roundly vilified in the national sports media
as "irrational," "amateurish," "dumb and dumber,"
and
one of the "worst decisions made in the annals of time" comparable
to "The Edsel. The leisure suit. Adam biting on
the apple." The
analysis in this article shows that far from being one of the worst decisions in
the annals of time,
Switzer's decision most likely maximized his team's chances
of winning the game, even in the extreme case that a
failed fourth down conversion
would mean certain
defeat.
(Originally appeared in part in USA Today, December 15, 1995, C1)