1306 Elings Hall
Nathan Parker (Arizona State University)
Transition Costs for Cellulosic Biofuels: Overcoming the Mountain of Despair
Studies of the economic potential of cellulosic biofuels suggest that the policy incentives in place should be enough to spur the development of an industry. This picture does not match the reality of the industry development thus far. The difference can be largely explained by costs associated with scale up to commercial production and a host of risks. This talk examines these transition costs and risks with the goal of better informing the policy process. I argue that these costs are poorly defined and the most important for evaluating the innovation-forcing policies, such as the cellulosic component of the Renewable Fuel Standard and California’s low carbon fuel standard. Past analysis of these policies have failed to properly account for them.