Econ 606 (Team-Taught): Macro Coordination Section (Tesfatsion)
Econ 606: Advanced Macro Topics
Course Module Syllabus
Macroeconomic Coordination
(Ph.D. Level)
- Last Updated: 13 May 2004
- Latest Offering: Spring 2004 (First Five Weeks)
- Time/Bldg/Room: MW 12:40-2, Heady 272
-
Course Module Home Page
- Course Module Instructor:
- Professor Leigh Tesfatsion
- Department of Economics/Heady 375
- Iowa State University
- Ames, Iowa 50011-1070
- (515) 294-0138
-
http://www.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/
tesfatsi@iastate.edu
- Office and Office Hours: Heady 375, TR 12:20pm-1:50pm and by
appointment
COURSE MODULE OBJECTIVES
Achieving an accurate understanding of the way in which key macro
variables (output, employment, price levels, capital stocks,...) move
together over time in decentralized market economies is a fundamental problem
of macroeconomic theory. At present there is no consensus regarding which
theory best explains this movement. At one end of the spectrum, new
classical macroeconomists work within frameworks in which the macroeconomy is
assumed to be in a continual state of equilibrium characterized by strong
efficiency properties. At the other end of the spectrum, post-Walrasian
macroeconomists argue that macroeconomies regularly exhibit coordination
failure (various degrees of inefficiency) and even lengthy periods of
disequilibrium. Given these fundamental differences, it is not surprising to
see major disagreements among macroeconomists concerning the extent to which
government policy makers can and ought to attempt to influence macroeconomic
outcomes.
This course module for Econ 606 will explore alternative perspectives on
macroeconomic coordination in an attempt to clarify why macroeconomists
exhibit such strong, passionate, and persistent disagreement on this issue.
COURSE MODULE TOPIC OUTLINE
- Macroeconomic Coordination: Introduction
- Walrasian Equilibrium: A Benchmark of
Coordination Success?
- Expectations and Time Inconsistency Issues
- Post-Walrasian Macroeconomics
- A Constructive Approach to Macroeconomic
Coordination
- Exam Review Materials
REQUIRED AND BACKGROUND MATERIALS
- REQUIRED MATERIALS:
- There are no required textbook purchases for this Econ 606 course
module. Required materials will consist of a selection of readings (book
chapters, journal articles, lecture notes, ... ). All required readings will
either be handed out in class, posted on-line with links to the syllabus, or
placed on closed reserve in the Reading Room (Heady 368).
- BACKGROUND MATERIALS (Closed Reserve, Reading Room, Heady 368):
- W. Brian Arthur, Steven N. Durlauf, and David A. Lane, The Economy as
an Evolving Complex System II," Proceedings Volume XXVII, Santa Fe
Institute Studies in the Sciences of Complexity, Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA,
1997.
- Note: Gerald Silverberg (University of Maastricht, the
Netherlands) has written a review
[
(html,7pp),
(pdf,9pp)]
of this volume
- David Collander (ed.), Beyond Microfoundations: Post Walrasian
Macroeconomics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, MA, 1996.
- Joshua Epstein and Robert Axtell, Growing Artificial Societies: Social
Science from the Bottom Up
(review,ps,28K),
MIT Press/Brookings, MA, 1996.
[The authors develop their famous Sugarscape Model
(html).]
- George R. Feiwel (ed.), Issues in Contemporary Macroeconomics and
Distribution, State University of New York, Albany, 1985
(paperback).
- Kevin D. Hoover, The New Classical Macroeconomics: A Skeptical
Inquiry, Basil Blackwell, Cambridge, MA, 1992 (paperback
edition, ISBN 0-631-17263-7).
- Peter Howitt, The Keynesian Recovery and Other Essays, The
University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor, MI, 1990.
- John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest,
and Money, Macmillan, 1936, reprinted edition.
- Thomas Sargent, Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics, Oxford U
Press, 1993.
- Note: This book is reviewed by Peter Howitt in the Journal
of Economic Literature 33 (September 95), 14-16.
- Thomas Sargent, Rational Expectations and Inflation, Harper and Row,
1986 (paperback).
- ON-LINE AND LIBRARY ECONOMIC RESOURCES:
-
Macro Source Materials:
This site provides an annotated list of pointers to a variety of online and
library materials focusing on macro policy, macro theory, and empirical macro
data. Students can browse this site for additional materials related to
in-class discussion questions of interest.
DETAILED OUTLINE OF TOPICS, DISCUSSION QUESTIONS, AND READINGS
- Please Note: The exact selection of required readings for
this Econ 606 course module will depend on the interests and backgrounds of
the students.
- Required readings will be marked with a double asterisk **. The required
readings contain basic material for answering exercoses and exam questions.
All required readings under a particular topic area are listed in suggested
reading order.
- Recommended (but not required) readings are also given, with highly
recommended readings marked with a single asterisk *. Recommended readings
cover material of a more general contextual nature that might be useful for
answering exercises and exam questions.
- Additional materials (required readings, recommended readings, lecture
notes, exercises, discussion questions,...) might be incorporated into this
on-line syllabus as the course section proceeds. Such materials will be
marked on the syllabus with an "updated" or "new" icon, respectively, for at
least one week following their incorporation, and their incorporation will
also be announced in class.
- Finally, in the readings cited below, the expression op.
cit. is an abbreviation for the Latin expression opere citato,
which means "in the work cited (above)."
-
I. MACROECONOMIC COORDINATION: INTRODUCTION
- Key Questions for In-Class Discussion:
- How should macroeconomics be defined?
- To what extent should macroeconomic analysis be based on
explicit microfoundations?
- To what extent should macroeconomic analysis attempt to incorporate
institutional constraints -- in particular,
realistic renderings of market processes?
- To what extent should macroeconomic analysis be concerned with
coordination issues?
- What does the "coordination" of a macroeconomy mean? Is it synonomous
in some sense with "equilibrium"? with "optimization"? with "stability"?
- Required and Recommended Readings:
- ** Kevin D. Hoover, "The Varieties of Macroeconomics", Chapter 1
(pages 3-19) in Kevin D. Hoover, The New Classical Macroeconomics,
op. cit.. BOOK ON CLOSED RESERVE
- ** Samuel Bowles, "Prologue"
(pdf,19pp),
Microeconomics: Behavior, Institutions, and Evolution, Princeton
University Press, Princeton, N.J., 2003. ON-LINE
- ** Peter Howitt, "Introduction: Prices and Coordination in Keynesian
Economics", Chapter 1 (pp. 1-23, focus on 1-19) in Peter Howitt, The
Keynesian Recovery and Other Essays, op. cit.. BOOK ON CLOSED
RESERVE
- ** Peter Howitt, "The Keynesian Recovery", Chapter 5 (pp. 70-85)
in Peter Howitt, The Keynesian Recovery and Other Essays, op.
cit.. BOOK ON CLOSED RESERVE
- ** Robert King, "New Classical Macroeconomics"
(html,8pp),
entry in the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics, 1993. ON-LINE/CLOSED
RESERVE
- ** N. Gregory Mankiw, "New Keynesian Economics"
(html,7pp),
entry in the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics, 1993. ON-LINE/CLOSED
RESERVE
- Note: New Keynesian economics is an early strand of the
"Post-Walrasian" macroeconomic literature, which will be more carefully
defined below in Section IV.
- * George R. Feiwel, "Quo Vadis Macroeconomics? Issues, Tensions, and
Challenges", Chapter 1 (pages 1-100) in George R. Feiwel (ed.), Issues
in Contemporary Macroeconomics and Distribution, op. cit.. BOOK ON
CLOSED RESERVE
- A sophisticated and exceptionally thoughtful survey of the "varieties
of macroeconomics" through the mid-nineteen eighties, still very relevant for
current macroeconomics today.
- John McMillan, Reinventing the Bazaar: A Natural History of
Markets, W. W. Norton & Co., 2002.
- From the author: "New ideas in economics, and some old ones, are used
in the chapters that follow to dissect exotic, innovative, and everyday
marketplaces -- some in physical space, others in cyberspace. How do markets
work? What can they do? What can't they do? These are the questions I will
address."
- The Alliance for Innovative Manufacturing (AIM) at Stanford University
maintains an interesting site titled How Everyday Things Are Made
(html).
- The site provides manufacturing video (virtual factory tours)
covering the manufacturing processes for over forty types of common products
(cars, planes, chocolate, glass bottles, etc.). These videos stress the
extraordinary degree of coordination among input suppliers, producers, and
distributors required to bring to market even seemingly simple products such
as a jelly bean.
-
II. WALRASIAN EQUILIBRIUM: A BENCHMARK OF COORDINATION SUCCESS?
- Key Questions for In-Class Discussion:
- What is a "Walrasian equilibrium"?
- How should an individual person's welfare be measured?
- How should social welfare be measured for an economy?
- In what sense are individual and social welfare optimized in a Walrasian
equilibrium?
- Is Walrasian equilibrium an appropriate benchmark of coordination
success for macroeconomics? (Or
does Walrasian equilibrium instead represent "the celestial mechanics
of a non-existent world," as suggested by Kenneth Boulding?)
- How robust is the concept of Walrasian equilibrium to various plausible
weakenings of its assumptions?
- Required and Recommended Readings:
- ** L. Tesfatsion,
"Walrasian Equilibrium: A Critique"
(pdf,122K). ON-LINE/HAND-OUT/CLASS PRESENTATION
- * Leigh Tesfatsion, "Intertemporal Extensions of the Walrasian General
Equilibrium Model", Lecture Notes. HAND-OUT
- * Leigh Tesfatsion, "Walrasian General Equilibrium with a Government
Sector", Lecture Notes. HAND-OUT
- * Samuel Bowles and Herbert Gintis, Walrasian Economics in
Retrospect
(pdf,123K,28pp),
Quarterly Journal of Economics, November 2000, 1411-1439.
ON-LINE/CLOSED RESERVE
- Christopher D. Mackie, Canonizing Economic Theory: How Theories and
Ideas are Selected in Economics, M. E. Sharpe, Inc., 1998.
-
Other Suggested Readings
-
III. EXPECTATIONS AND TIME INCONSISTENCY ISSUES
- Key Questions for In-Class Discussion:
- What distinguishes rational from adaptive expectations?
- In what sense is "rational expectations" a coordination device?
- How does the possible existence of multiple rational expectations
solutions pose logical difficulties for the application of rational
expectations as a coordination device?
- Why does the existence of strategic (behavioral) uncertainty
pose problems for the very definition of rational expectations?
- How do credible commitment and time inconsistency problems cause
intertemporal coordination problems for government policy makers?
- Required and Recommended Readings:
- ** L. Tesfatsion, "Adaptive vs. Rational Expectations".
HAND-OUT/CLASS PRESENTATION
- ** L. Tesfatsion, "Introduction to Rational Expectations"
(pdf,130K). HAND-OUT/CLASS PRESENTATION
- ** L. Tesfatsion,
"Notes on the Lucas Critique, Time Inconsistency,
and Related Issues"
(pdf,114K).
HAND-OUT/CLASS PRESENTATION
- * F. S. Mishkin, "The Rational Expectations Revolution: A Review
Article of Preston J. Miller, ed., The Rational Expectations Revolution:
Readings from the Front Line", Journal of International and
Comparative Economics, Volume 5, 1996. A preprint of the paper is online
as
NBER Working Paper W5043 (pdf,1026K).
ON-LINE/CLOSED RESERVE
- * Lars E. O. Svensson,
"Comments on Nancy Stokey: `Rules versus
discretion after twenty five years'"
(pdf,9pp),
comments prepared for the NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Princeton
University, April 2002. ON-LINE/CLOSED RESERVE
- * Kevin Hoover, New Classical Macroeconomics, op. cit.,
"Econometrics and the Analysis of Policy", Chapter 8 (pp. 185-202).
BOOK ON CLOSED RESERVE
- Hoover examines the Lucas Critique and assesses various attempts
to apply new classical macro principles to the econometric analysis of
policy.
- * T. Sargent, "Rational Expectations and the Reconstruction of
Macroeconomics", Chapter 1 (pp. 1-18), in T. Sargent, Rational
Expectations and Inflation, op. cit.. BOOK ON CLOSED RESERVE
- * Alan P. Kirman, "Whom or What Does the Representative Individual
Represent?", Journal of Economic Perspectives 6 (Spring 1992),
117-136. ARTICLE ON CLOSED RESERVE
- A highly influential critique of the use of "representative agents" in
economic theorizing.
-
Other Suggested Readings
-
IV. POST-WALRASIAN MACROECONOMICS
- Key Questions for In-Class Discussion:
- Must markets clear in the traditional
Walrasian sense in order for an economy to be in "equilibrium"?
How should "equilibrium" be defined for macroeconomies?
- What does "coordination failure" mean for a macroeconomy? How is it
distinct from disequilibrium?
- What is meant by "involuntary unemployment"? Can economies become stuck
in situations with persistent involuntary unemployment?
- Can involuntary unemployment arise in macroeconomies for reasons other
than sticky prices?
- Why might credible signalling of purchasing intentions be important in
circular flow economies?
- What was Clower's distinction between notional and effective demands and
supplies, and how does this relate to the issue of credible signalling?
- How can self-fulfilling expectations lead to the existence of "multiple
equilibria" for an economy in a given structural state?
- What constitutes "rational" expectations and "rational" planning in the
presence of behavioral uncertainty?
- How might coordination failure arise in the presence of behavioral
uncertainty?
- What kinds of institutions (private or public) might help to
induce coordination on socially desirable outcomes?
- Required and Recommended Readings:
- ** David Colander, "Overview", Chapter 1 (pp. 1-17, stress on
pages 1-10) in David Colander (ed.), Beyond Microfoundations: Post
Walrasian Macroeconomics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK,
1996. BOOK ON CLOSED RESERVE
- ** L. Tesfatsion, "NonWalrasian Equilibrium: Illustrative
Examples"
(pdf,187K).
ON-LINE/HAND-OUT/CLASS PRESENTATION
- ** Robert Clower and Peter Howitt, "Taking Markets
Seriously: Groundwork for a Post Walrasian Macroeconomics", Chapter 2
(pp. 21-37) in David Colander (ed.), Beyond Microfoundations: Post
Walrasian Macroeconomics, op. cit.. BOOK ON CLOSED RESERVE
- * George A. Akerlof, "Behavioral Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic
Behavior", The American Economic Review, Volume 92, No. 3, June
2002, pages 411-433. ARTICLE ON CLOSED RESERVE
- This is a revised version of the Nobel Lecture Akerlof delivered in
Sweden on December 8, 2001.
- * Axel Leijonhufvud, "Towards a Not-Too-Rational Macroeconomics",
Chapter 3 (pp. 39-55) in in David Colander (ed.), Beyond Microfoundations:
Post Walrasian Macroeconomics, op. cit.. BOOK ON CLOSED RESERVE
- Leijonhufvud contrasts current macroeconomic theory -- the study of
"incredibly smart people in unbelievably simple situations" -- with what
he believes ought to be the subject of macroeconomic theory, the study of
"believably simple people (coping) with incredibly complex situations."
- Russell Cooper, Coordination Games: Complementarities and
Macroeconomics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1999.
- Douglas C. North, The New Institutional Economics and
Development
(pdf,30K),
Working Paper, Washington University at St. Louis, 1993. ON-LINE/CLOSED
RESERVE
- This paper briefly summarizes the essential characteristics of the
"new institutional economics," describes how the approach differs from
neoclassical theory, and applies its analytical framework to problems of
development.
- Vincent Crawford (University of California at San Diego, CA),
"John Nash and the Analysis of Strategic Behavior"
(pdf,7pp),
Working Paper, Department of Economics, UCSD, January 2000. ON-LINE/CLOSED
RESERVE
- Michael Spence, "Signaling in Retrospect and the Informational
Structure of Markets", The American Economic Review, Volume 92,
No. 3, June 2002, pages 434-459. ARTICLE ON CLOSED RESERVE
- Joseph E. Stiglitz, "Information and the Change in the Paradigm of
Economics", The American Economic Review, Volume 92, No. 3, June
2002, pages 460-501. ARTICLE ON CLOSED RESERVE
-
Other Suggested Readings
-
V. A CONSTRUCTIVE APPROACH TO MACROECONOMIC COORDINATION
- Key Questions for In-Class Discussion:
- Does the real understanding of a system (sandpile, washing machine,
cockroach, city, economy,...) require knowing how to construct it? And
what does "constructing it" mean?
- What is the basic agent-based computational economics (ACE) approach?
- Key coordination issues that are being experimentally studied using ACE
frameworks:
- Learning effects (under what conditions will expectations come to be
coordinated?)
- Interaction effects (under what conditions will buyers and sellers
efficiently match? efficiently trade?)
- Effects of institutional constraints (hindrance or help for
achieving macroeconomic coordination?)
- If you had to construct a workable decentralized market economy from
scratch, how would you do it?
- Are there any "universally applicable" features
that you believe you would have
to incorporate in your constructed economy in order for it to function
properly?
- Illustrative Example: An ACE labor market with preferential job search
and evolution of work-site behaviors
- Required and Recommended Readings:
- ** Leigh Tesfatsion, "Macro Coordination: More General
Considerations"
(pdf,25K). ON-LINE/HAND-OUT/CLASS PRESENTATION
- ** Leigh Tesfatsion, ACE Tutorial
(pdf,101K). ON-LINE/CLASS PRESENTATION
- ** Leigh Tesfatsion, "Agent-Based Computational Economics: Modeling
Economies as Complex Adaptive Systems"
(pdf preprint,72K),
Information Sciences, Volume 149, 2003, 263-269.
ON-LINE/HAND-OUT
- ** Mark Pingle and Leigh Tesfatsion,
Evolution of Worker-Employer Networks and Behaviors Under Alternative
Non-Employment Benefits: An Agent-Based Computational Study",
pp. 256-285 in A. Nagurney (ed.), Innovations in Financial and Economic
Networks, Edward Elgar, 2003, presentation
(pdf,87K). ON-LINE/CLASS PRESENTATION
- NOTE: This presentation, to be given in class, constitutes
the required reading. However, if anyone is interested, a preprint of the
full published paper (not required reading) is available ON-LINE
(pdf preprint,269K) and on CLOSED RESERVE.
Tutorials, source code (including an automatic installation utility), and
other information about the Trade Network Game (TNG) Laboratory used to run
all experiments reported in the Pingle/Tesfatsion paper can be found
on-line at the
TNG Home Page.
- ** Richard Rogerson, Theory Ahead of Language in the Economics of
Unemployment, Journal of Economic Perspectives 11(1), Winter 1997,
pp. 73-92. HAND-OUT
- This article explores the usefulness of conceptions such as the
natural rate of unemployment, involuntary vs. voluntary unemployment, and
equilibrium vs. disequilibrium unemployment in the context of a labor market
model with job search. It provides an interesting background reading for the
above Pingle/Tesfatsion labor market study of preferential job search with
evolution of work-site behaviors.
- * Leigh Tesfatsion, "The Efficiency-Wage Debate",
(pdf,110K). ON-LINE
- These notes provide general background materials for a key issue
raised in the above Pingle/Tesfatsion labor market job search study: What
determines the effort levels exerted by workers and employers on the
work-site?
- * Leigh Tesfatsion, "Universal Principles for Decentralized Market
Economies?"
(pdf,18K).
ON-LINE
- Richard B. Freeman, War of the Worlds: Which Labour Market
Institutions for the 21st Century?", Labour Economics, Vol. 5
(1998), 1-24. ARTICLE ON CLOSED RESERVE, and ON-LINE at
Elsevier Publishers.
- Roberto Gabriele, Labor Market Dynamics and Institutions: An
Evolutionary Approach, LEM Paper 2002-07, Laboratory of Economics and
Management, Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, CLOSED
RESERVE and ON-LINE at
EconPapers.
- Jonathan Rauch, "Seeing Around Corners"
(html),
The Atlantic Monthly, April 2002, pp. 35-48. ON-LINE/CLOSED RESERVE
- Rauch surveys early and ongoing research on the computational
modeling of artificial societies. He discusses early seminal work by Thomas
Schelling (University of Maryland) in the 1970s on the evolution of spatial
segregation in cities. He also discusses work on artificial societies (e.g.,
Sugarscape) carried out at the Brookings Institution (Washington, D.C.) by
Joshua Epstein, Robert Axtell, and Ross Hammond (now at the University of
Michigan). A third pursuit surveyed by Rauch is the effort by Joshua
Epstein, in collaboration with two University of Arizona archaeologists
(George Gumerman and Jeffrey Dean), to build an artificial society exhibiting
the known characteristics of the actual Long House Valley Anasazi culture
that existed in the southwest from approximately A.D. 800 to A.D. 1350.
Interested readers can also view
animations
in QuickTime format of some of the artificial societies discussed in Rauch's
article.
- Joshua Epstein and Robert Axtell, Growing Artificial Societies:
Social Science from the Bottom Up
(html),
op. cit.. BOOK ON CLOSED RESERVE
- The authors use a relatively simple agent-based computational
framework (Sugarscape) to illustrate how the complex adaptive systems
paradigm can be applied to the study of social phenomena. Illustrative
applications include trade, migration, group formation, combat, interaction
with an environment, transmission of culture, propagation of disease, and
population dynamics. This monograph is
reviewed (ps,28K)
by L. Tesfatsion in the Journal of Economic Literature (Vol. XXXVI,
March 1998, 233-234).
- Other Introductory Materials on Agent-Based Computational Economics
(ACE)
(html)
- Research Portal on ACE Multiple-Market Modeling
(html)
- ACE Course Syllabus (Self-Study eBook)
(html)
-
VI. EXAM REVIEW MATERIALS
- Final Exam Review Guide:
Copyright © 2004 Leigh Tesfatsion. All Rights Reserved.