| TABLE 3. AVERAGE NET RETURNS, MARGIN ACCOUNTS, OVER AND UNDER HEDGES AND SUPPORTING STATISTICS FOR PREHARVEST MARKETING STRATEGIES AND A NAIVE HARVEST CASH MAREKTING STRATEGY: IOWA AND OHIO SOYBEAN DATA | |||||||
| Strategies | State & grain | Months or years | Net Return | t - test | Probability | ||
|
|
|
|
Mean | Std dev | CV |
|
|
|
|
|
|
($) | ($) | % |
|
|
| Hedge I | Ohio Soy | Feb or May |
59868 |
11173 |
0.1866 |
1.0994 |
0.2861 |
| Hedge I | Iowa Soy | Feb or May |
80233 |
25000 |
0.3116 |
1.1400 |
0.2692 |
| Hedge II | Ohio Soy | Feb or July |
61655 |
14518 |
0.2355 |
1.7215 |
0.1023 |
| Hedge II | Iowa Soy | Feb or July |
82104 |
28044 |
0.3416 |
1.7642 |
0.0947 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8020 put/hedge |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mixed Hedge Put I |
Ohio Soy |
|
53250 |
12233 |
0.2297 |
0.5595 |
0.5861 |
|
Mixed Hedge Put I |
Iowa Soy |
|
73619 |
30795 |
0.4185 |
0.5595 |
0.5861 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8020 put/hedge with Feb short hedge |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mixed Hedge Put II |
Ohio Soy |
|
56057 |
11745 |
0.2095 |
1.2510 |
0.2348 |
|
Mixed Hedge Put II |
Iowa Soy |
|
76411 |
31077 |
0.4067 |
1.1757 |
0.2625 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Synthetic put |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Synthetic IV |
Ohio Soy |
h/july call |
59280 |
11318 |
0.1909 |
3.0720 |
0.0097 |
|
Synthetic IV |
Iowa Soy |
h/july call |
80046 |
32757 |
0.4092 |
2.9618 |
0.0119 |
|
Synthetic V |
Ohio Soy |
h/aug call |
57455 |
10815 |
0.1882 |
2.4353 |
0.0314 |
|
Synthetic V |
Iowa Soy |
h/aug call |
78207 |
31480 |
0.4025 |
2.3031 |
0.0400 |
|
Synthetic VI |
Iowa Soy |
h/sept call |
76851 |
32678 |
0.4252 |
1.6269 |
0.1297 |
|
Synthetic VI |
Ohio Soy |
h/sept call |
56396 |
11482 |
0.2036 |
1.7826 |
0.0999 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Synthetic put with Feb short hedge |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Synthetic I |
Ohio Soy |
h/july call |
59200 |
9981 |
0.1686 |
2.4824 |
0.0288 |
|
Synthetic I |
Iowa Soy |
h/july call |
79792 |
31274 |
0.3919 |
2.3714 |
0.0353 |
|
Synthetic II |
Ohio Soy |
h/aug call |
58141 |
9112 |
0.1567 |
2.0055 |
0.0680 |
|
Synthetic II |
Iowa Soy |
h/aug call |
78830 |
30140 |
0.3823 |
1.9373 |
0.0766 |
|
Synthetic III |
Ohio Soy |
h/sept call |
57069 |
9827 |
0.1722 |
1.5421 |
0.1490 |
|
Synthetic III |
Iowa Soy |
h/sept call |
77452 |
31274 |
0.4038 |
1.4302 |
0.1782 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Naive Cash Marketin Sale |
Ohio Soy |
18 yrs |
55821 |
17784 |
0.3186 |
|
|
|
|
Iowa Soy |
18 yrs |
75892 |
29405 |
0.3875 |
|
|
|
|
Ohio Soy |
12 yrs |
52680 |
13391 |
0.2542 |
|
|
|
|
Iowa Soy |
12 yrs |
72764 |
31745 |
0.4363 |
|
|