| Press the Back
button to go back to the text. Table 1. Price of Harvest Futures at
Selected Times before Harvest Minus Harvest-time Price of
Harvest Futures, December Corn and November
Soybean Futures, 1952 -1997.
| Year |
Average Price of
Harvest Futures at Harvest a
|
Price Difference by
Date Before Harvest
|
| September 1 |
July 1 |
May 1 |
March 1 |
| |
------------------------------------
Corn (cents /bushel)b ------------------------------------
|
| 1952
– 1997 |
199
|
1.16
(0.36)
|
6.18
(1.04)
|
2.69
(0.45)
|
3.07
(0.53)
|
| 1952
– 1973 |
133
|
-0.47
(-0.31)
|
0.28
(0.08)
|
-2.07
(-0.42)
|
-2.35
(-0.40)
|
| 1974
– 1997 |
259
|
2.65
(0.44)
|
11.58
(1.07)
|
7.05
(0.67
|
8.04
(0.83)
|
| 1952
– 1962 |
127
|
2.34
(1.55)
|
3.91
(1.47)
|
4.95
(1.96)
|
5.18
(2.49*)
|
| 1963
– 1973 |
138
|
-3.28
(-1.34)
|
-3.34
(-0.50)
|
-9.09
(-0.97)
|
-9.88
(-0.86)
|
| 1974
– 1984 |
280
|
4.89
(0.61)
|
2.05
(0.12)
|
1.11
(0.06)
|
4.02
(0.24)
|
| 1985
– 1997 |
242
|
0.75
(0.08)
|
19.65
(1.44)
|
12.08
(1.15)
|
11.44
(1.01)
|
| |
------------------------------------
Soybeans (cents/bushel)
------------------------------------
|
| 1952
– 1997 |
463
|
3.15
(0.45)
|
6.68
(0.57)
|
-2.54
(-0.19)
|
-5.44
(-0.43)
|
| 1952
– 1973 |
277
|
0.84
(0.12)
|
2.95
(0.54)
|
-13.36
(-2.59*)
|
-13.34
(-1.81)
|
| 1974
– 1997 |
635
|
5.27
(0.44)
|
10.10
(0.45)
|
7.39
(0.28)
|
1.79
(0.07)
|
| 1952
– 1962 |
246
|
-5.17
(-1.41)
|
3.11
(0.45)
|
-4.66
(-0.90)
|
-0.65
(-0.10)
|
| 1963
– 1973 |
307
|
6.85
(0.49)
|
2.79
(0.32)
|
-22.06
(-2.64*)
|
-26.02
(-2.09)
|
| 1974
– 1984 |
675
|
-2.39
(-0.13)
|
-19.30
(-0.50)
|
-25.11
(-0.49)
|
-19.30
(-0.43)
|
| 1985
– 1997 |
602
|
11.75
(0.71)
|
34.98
(1.47)
|
34.88
(1.78)
|
19.63
(0.86)
|
a Harvest is defined as
November 1 for soybeans and December 1 for corn.
b The t-test is reported
in the parenthesis for the null hypothesis: Price of
Harvest Futures before Harvest Minus Price of Harvest
Futures at Harvest = 0.
* - indicates
significance at 5 percent test level using a
two-tailed test.
SOURCE: original
calculations
|